츠 베팅 시장의 비효율성 식별: 하우스 이기기
📝 원문 정보
- Title: Beating the House: Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets
- ArXiv ID: 1910.08858
- 발행일: 2019-10-24
- 저자: Sathya Ramesh, Ragib Mostofa, Marco Bornstein, John Dobelman
📝 초록 (Abstract)
비효율적인 시장은 투자자가 일관되게 시장을 상회하는 수익을 낼 수 있게 합니다. 스포츠 베팅 시장에서 비효율성이 존재한다는 것을 입증하기 위해, 우리는 NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB 및 WNBA 베팅 시장에서 시장 평균 이상의 수익을 내는 배팅 알고리즘을 만들었습니다. 우리의 배팅 전략을 구성하기 위해 새로운 데이터셋의 베팅 정보를 수집하고 검토하였으며, 양분석적 승률 모델을 만들어 긍정적인 기대값 상황을 찾았습니다. 미국 연방 대법원이 최근 스포츠 베팅에 대한 연방금지를 폐지함에 따라, 이 연구는 성장 중인 스포츠 베팅 산업에 있어 점점 더 중요한 의미를 가지게 되었습니다.💡 논문 핵심 해설 (Deep Analysis)
The paper "Beating the House: Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets" delves into a critical area of financial and sports analytics. The core idea is to develop an algorithm that can consistently generate above-market returns by identifying inefficiencies within various sports betting markets, such as NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, and WNBA.Problem Statement: Inefficiencies in the sports betting market often allow savvy investors or bettors to outperform the average outcomes. However, systematic approaches to exploit these inefficiencies are lacking.
Solution Approach (Core Technology): The researchers collected a novel dataset of bets from different leagues and developed a non-parametric win probability model. This model predicts game outcomes based on historical data, identifying situations where the market’s implied probabilities do not reflect true odds, thus creating positive expected value scenarios for betting.
Key Outcomes: Their algorithm consistently outperformed the market in several sports markets. The study also highlights the potential of such algorithms to be applied across different types of sporting events and leagues.
Significance & Application: With recent legal changes allowing more widespread sports betting, this research provides a foundational approach that can be leveraged by investors or bettors looking for an edge in this growing market. It underscores the importance of data-driven strategies in achieving consistent profitability within the realm of financial and sports analytics.