Safer Builders, Risky Maintainers: A Comparative Study of Breaking Changes in Human vs Agentic PRs

AI coding agents are increasingly integrated into modern software engineering workflows, actively collaborating with human developers to create pull requests (PRs) in open-source repositories. Although coding agents improve developer productivity, th…

Authors: K M Ferdous, Dipayan Banik, Kowshik Chowdhury

Safer Builders, Risky Maintainers: A Comparative Study of Breaking Changes in Human vs Agentic PRs
Safer Builders, Risky Maintainers: A Comparative Study of Breaking Changes in Human vs A gentic PRs K M Ferdous kferdous@students.kennesaw .edu Kennesaw State Univ ersity Marietta, Georgia, USA Dipayan Banik dipayan5175@gmail.com Quanta T echnology Raleigh, North Carolina, USA Ko wshik Chowdhury kchowdh1@students.kennesaw .edu Kennesaw State Univ ersity Marietta, Georgia, USA Shazibul Islam Shamim mshamim@kennesaw .edu Kennesaw State Univ ersity Marietta, Georgia, USA Abstract AI coding agents are increasingly integrated into mo dern software engineering workows, actively collaborating with human devel- opers to create pull requests (PRs) in open-source repositories. Al- though coding agents improve de veloper productivity , they often generate code with more bugs and security issues than human- authored code. While human-authored PRs often break backward compatibility , leading to breaking changes, the potential for agentic PRs to introduce breaking changes remains underexplored. The goal of this paper is to help developers and researchers evaluate the reliability of AI-generated PRs by examining the frequency and task contexts in which AI agents introduce breaking changes. W e conduct a comparative analysis of 7,191 agent-generated PRs with 1402 human-authored PRs from Python repositories in the AIDev dataset. W e develop a tool that analyzes code changes in commits corresponding to the agentic PRs and leverages an ab- stract syntax tree (AST) based analysis to detect p otential breaking changes. Our ndings sho w that AI agents introduce fewer breaking changes overall than humans (3.45% vs. 7.40%) in code generation tasks. Howev er , agents exhibit substantially higher risk during maintenance tasks, with r efactoring and chore changes introducing breaking changes at rates of 6.72% and 9.35%, respe ctively . W e also identify a “Condence T rap” where highly condent agentic PRs still introduce breaking changes, indicating the nee d for stricter review during maintenance oriented changes regardless of reported condence score. CCS Concepts • Software and its engineering → Software development tech- niques ; Collaboration in software development ; Software cre- ation and management ; A rticial intelligence . Ke ywords Breaking Changes, AI Agents, Coding Agents, Software Mainte- nance, Software Security , Secure Software Engineering This work is licensed under a Creativ e Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. MSR ’26, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil © 2026 Copyright held by the owner/author(s). ACM ISBN 979-8-4007-2474-9/2026/04 https://doi.org/10.1145/3793302.3793610 A CM Reference Format: K M Ferdous, Dipayan Banik, Kowshik Chowdhury, and Shazibul Islam Shamim. 2026. Safer Builders, Risky Maintainers: A Comparative Study of Breaking Changes in Human vs Agentic PRs. In 23r d International Conference on Mining Software Rep ositories (MSR ’26), A pril 13–14, 2026, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil . ACM, Ne w Y ork, N Y , USA, 5 pages. https://doi.org/10.1145/3793302. 3793610 1 Introduction The AI coding agents, such as Devin, Claude Code, and GitHub Copilot, have brought about a paradigm shift in modern software development worko ws [ 27 ] [ 11 ]. These AI agents enhance devel- oper productivity by performing co ding tasks, generating test cases, and handling complex end-to-end dev elopment tasks, such as issue resolution and pull request (PR) cr eation [ 10 ] [ 28 ] [ 14 ] [ 4 ]. These agents have become active participants alongside human develop- ers in creating pull r equests in open-source repositories [ 11 ] [ 12 ]. For instance, OpenAI Codex has created more than 400,000 PRs in open-source GitHub repositories within the rst two months of its release [ 19 ]. Agentic PRs are increasingly common in real repositories, and datasets such as AIDev capture thousands of these contributions across diverse projects [19]. Despite improvements in developer productivity and active in- volvement in modern software engineering pr ocesses, AI-generated code remains susceptible to signicant quality issues. The AI gen- erated code often contains more bugs and security vulnerabilities than human-authored code [ 3 ] [ 16 ] [ 22 ] [ 25 ]. According to a re- cent study by Co deRabbit of 470 open-source pull requests on GitHub, AI-generated co de contains 1.7 times more issues than human-authored code [ 20 ]. Researchers also reported that devel- opers using AI assistance experienced higher rates of broken tests and integration failures during refactoring tasks [23]. While prior work has primarily fo cused on AI agent performance and bug analysis, comparatively little attention has been given to their impact on backwar d compatibility . AI agents may unintention- ally introduce breaking changes when generating patches and pull requests [ 30 ] [ 29 ], y et this risk remains underexplored compared to human-authored changes. In this research, we investigate whether AI agents can introduce breaking changes. T o address this gap, we evaluate the reliability of agent-generate d pull requests by analyzing the frequency of breaking changes and the development contexts in which they o ccur . W e also include MSR ’26, April 13–14, 2026, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil K M Ferdous, Dipayan Banik, Kowshik Cho wdhury, and Shazibul Islam Shamim our replication package to replicate our ndings [ 7 ]. Our study addresses the following resear ch questions: • RQ1: How often do AI agents introduce breaking changes compared to human developers? • RQ2: How does the breaking change rate of AI-generated pull requests dier between generative tasks and maintenance tasks? • RQ3: T o what extent are AI agent condence scores associated with the occurrence of breaking changes? 2 Background A breaking change is a co de modication that violates backward compatibility and disrupts existing usage [ 21 ]. Such changes often result from structural alterations to a program’s public interface, such as renaming functions or classes, modifying parameters or re- turn types, changing class hierarchies, or removing public memb ers [ 2 ] [ 6 ] [ 29 ]. These changes can br eak dependent code , as illustrate d in Figure 1. Figure 1: Git hunk and Breaking change In Git-base d version control systems, code changes are repre- sented as dis that capture line-level dierences between le revi- sions [ 26 ]. A di is composed of one or more hunks, each repre- senting a contiguous block of adde d, removed, or modied lines [8]. Figure 1 illustrates a hunk within a Git di. 3 Related works Breaking changes are a well established concern in software evolu- tion. Xavier et al. [ 29 ] studied the frequency of breaking changes, while Zhang et al. [ 30 ] found that over 40% of API changes in Python packages are breaking. Du et al. [ 6 ] proposed AexPy , a Python specic tool for detecting breaking changes. However , prior work focuses on human-authored code, leaving AI-generated con- tributions largely unexplored. Prior studies on AI programming tools report improvements in productivity [ 10 ] and demonstrate the ability to generate complete pull requests [ 13 ] [ 19 ], but also reveal limitations in correctness and contextual understanding [ 28 ]. Li et al. [ 19 ], examining the transition to “Software Engineering 3.0” through the AIDev dataset, highlight a gap between benchmark performance and real-w orld eectiveness. They nd that AI agents increase contribution volume but achieve lower acceptance rates than human developers. Pearce et al. [ 22 ] found that up to 40% of AI-generated code may contain security vulnerabilities, while Chen et al. [ 4 ] reported that only 28–48% of AI-generated solutions pass all tests, indicating frequent failures. Additionally , Horikawa et al. [13] observed that over 53% of agentic refactoring occurs implicitly within commits fo cused on other tasks. Although prior research benchmarks AI performance, there is limited research on detecting breaking changes in AI-generate d contributions. Our work addresses this gap by comparing task-wise breaking change rates b etween AI agent-generated and human- authored pull requests and evaluating whether agent condence scores predict breaking changes. 4 Methodology T o address our research questions, we use the AIDev dataset [ 18 ], which provides a comprehensive collection of both AI-agent and human-authored contributions. Our analysis fo cuses on the patches (Git dis) include d in the dataset. W e restrict our study to pull requests from Python-based repositories, as Python is heavily rep- resented in LLM training corpora [ 4 , 17 ], ensuring that our results accurately reect the capabilities of AI coding agents. The repository table lists 2,807 GitHub repositories with at least 100 stars, including 530 Python projects. From these reposi- tories, the pull_request table contains 7,191 AI-generated pull requests and 1,402 human-authored pull requests. Since state of the art A exPy [ 6 ] and other tools like pidi [ 24 ], Py- Compat [ 30 ] analyze dierences between full source code versions rather than directly parsing Git dis, making these tools unsuit- able for our study . Therefore, we develop a tool to detect potential breaking changes from Git dis. Figure 2 illustrates the worko w of our breaking change detection process. Figure 2: W orkow of potential Breaking change dete ction In the rst stage, we lter pull requests by selecting ve task categories: feat, x, p erf, refactor , and chore, which directly im- pact program structure according to the commit convention [ 1 , 5 ]. This step results in 4,798 AI-generated pull requests. Using tables pr_commits and pr_commit_details , w e extract commit-level metadata, yielding 75,467 le-level patches. Applying the same criteria to human-authored pull requests, we identify 1,026 relevant PRs. Although the dataset includes ta- bles human_pull_request and human_pr_task_type , it does not provide commit-level data and le patches. T o address this lim- itation, we used a GitHub API–based mining script to retrieve the missing commit data, collecting 5,788 commits and 93,044 le-level patches for analysis. W e then applied a heuristic path-based lter to keep only cor e Python source les and exclude non-essential directories (e.g. tests, examples, etc). This process results in 23,333 agentic and 36,991 human-authored patches (60,324 total) and removing approximately 66% of the original patches. Safer Builders, Risky Maintainers: A Comparative Study of Breaking Changes in Human vs Agentic PRs MSR ’26, April 13–14, 2026, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Since AST parser cannot process a patch (git di ) directly , in this step, we r econstruct the pre-commit and post-commit versions of code for each di hunk using the git di processor . These recon- structed codes contain valid syntax suitable for AST parsing. Finally , we parse the pre-commit and post-commit co de of all 60,324 patches using Python’s AST parser , categorizing changes by scope like class-level, function-le vel, etc. The breaking change detector then applies 17 patterns from Du et al. [ 6 ] to identify po- tential breaking changes, organized into thr ee categories: Remo vals, Modications, and Additions. W e measure the Potential Breaking Change Rate, dene d as the percentage of commit les (patches) that contain at least one detected breaking change. Potential Breaking Change (PBC) Rate = Number of patches contain Potential Breaking Change T otal Number of patches (1) W e ran our potential br eaking change detector on 60,324 patches and detected 3,538 potential breaking changes. T o validate the re- liability of our to ol, we randomly sele cted 94 patches from 3,538 detected potential breaking changes using a 95% condence level and a 10% margin of error . T wo authors indep endently reviewed the sample , conrming 90/94 (95.7%) and 88/94 (93.6%) true positive matches, respectively . This yielded substantial inter-rater agree- ment ( Cohen’s K appa = 0.79), and any disagreements were resolved through discussion. 5 Analysis and Findings 5.1 Frequency of Potential Breaking Changes ( AI vs. Humans) Our analysis shows that AI agents introduced potential breaking changes in 805 of 23,333 patches (3.45%), aecting 11.3% of agent- generated pull requests. In comparison, human developers intro- duced potential br eaking changes in 2,733 of 36,991 patches (7.40%), impacting 21.18% of human-authored pull requests. Figure 3 sum- marizes these results, indicating that AI-generated commits exhibit a lower rate of potential breaking changes than human-author ed commits. Figure 3: Breaking Change Rates (%) in AI Agents vs Humans Figure 4 demonstrates the distribution of potential breaking changes across AI agents. Claude Code exhibits 74 breaking changes across 1,450 patches (ratio 5.10), while Copilot, Cursor , Devin, and OpenAI Codex have ratios of 3.04, 4.20, 4.09, and 2.62, respectively . These results indicate that although all agents introduce some po- tential breaking changes, their frequency remains low er than that observed in human-authored patches. Figure 4: Agent wise potential breaking change rate (%) Answer of RQ1 Our analysis shows that AI agents intr oduce potential breaking changes at a lower rate (3.45%) compare to human developers (7.40%). While all agents produce some potential breaking changes, their frequency remains lower than that of human-authored com- mits. 5.2 T ask-Spe cic Breaking Change (Generative vs. Maintenance) T o address RQ2, we categorize tasks into generative activities (feat, x, perf ) and maintenance activities (refactor , chore). Figure 5 shows that AI agents exhibit relatively low breaking change rates in gen- erative tasks: 2.89% for featur e additions, 2.69% for bug xes, and 4.12% for performance improvements. In contrast, maintenance tasks carr y higher risks, with refactoring at 6.72% and chore-related tasks at 9.35%. Figure 5: T ask-Specic breaking change rate comparison. For human-authored patches, we notice the opposite trend. Gen- erative tasks have higher breaking change rates, with feat at 7.74%, x at 5.32%, and perf at 0.90%, whereas maintenance tasks show relatively low er rates, with refactor at 4.36% and chore at 4.95%. Overall, AI agents demonstrate more reliability for code gener- ation but are more risky in maintenance tasks, whereas humans show the opposite trend. This comparison suggests that AI agents MSR ’26, April 13–14, 2026, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil K M Ferdous, Dipayan Banik, Kowshik Cho wdhury, and Shazibul Islam Shamim need more understanding for maintenance related patches and the changes should undergo careful revie w . Answer of RQ2 AI agents are more prone to breaking changes in maintenance tasks (chore: 9.35%, refactor: 6.72%) than in generative tasks (feat: 2.89%, x: 2.69%), indicating that AI agents require deeper under- standing for structural modications. 5.3 The Condence Trap W e notice that the condence scores are strongly right-skewed, with 99.9% of AI-generated pull requests between 8 and 10. Therefore, we focus on condence scores 8, 9, and 10 to assess the relationship between condence and breaking changes. Figure 6: The relationship b etween AI agent condence scores and potential breaking changes. In Figur e 6, our ndings highlight that br eaking change rates are relatively similar for levels 8 and 9, at 3.94% (33 of 837 patches) and 3.96% (311 of 7,854 patches), respectively . Interestingly , condence level 10 also e xhibits potential breaking changes, but at a slightly lower rate of 3.16% (458 breaks out of 14,509 commits). These results indicate that high condence does not reliably guarantee safe code generation. Therefore, condence scores alone are insucient for prioritizing revie w or deployment, and should be supplemente d with additional verication mechanisms when using agent-generated code in production. Answer of RQ3 Breaking changes occur across all high-condence levels (8–10), ranging from 3.16% to 3.96%, indicating that AI agents’ condence scores alone do not guarantee safe code. 6 Discussion 6.1 Interpretation of Findings 6.1.1 Maintenance Task Risk : Our results indicate that AI agents introduce substantially higher rates of potential breaking changes in maintenance oriented tasks, such as refactoring (6.72%) and chore (9.35%) related updates (gure 5). This highlights the need for further research to improve AI agent p erformance and reliability specically in maintenance tasks. 6.1.2 Unreliable Confidence Score : Figure 6 highlights that AI- generated PRs introduce potential breaking changes even at high condence levels (8–10), indicating that condence scores do not reliably reect breaking change risk. This suggests the need to align condence with structural risk. 6.2 Implications for Practitioners 6.2.1 T ask-Specific Review Policy : In gure 5, we observe that agent-generated maintenance tasks introduce more potential break- ing changes than generative tasks. So , we recommend practition- ers apply enhanced, task-specic review policies regardless of the agent’s reported condence. 6.3 Implications for Researchers 6.3.1 Assessing Breaking Changes in Benchmarks : Current AI cod- ing benchmarks ( e.g., HumanEval, SWE-b ench) focus on functional correctness, but agents can introduce breaking changes (Figure 4). So future research should incorporate breaking-change analysis into these benchmarks. 7 Threats to V alidity 7.1 Internal V alidity Our analysis focuses on ve task categories and their PRs that di- rectly aect program structure. This selection may have overlooked “tangled commits” , combining code and do cumentation but labeled as document type tasks. Additionally , our static analysis may over- estimate breaking changes due to challenges in handling nested functions, which are not publicly accessible and dicult to identify from patches [9]. 7.2 External V alidity For task-based pull request ltering, w e relied exclusively on the classication schema provided by the AIDev dataset. Any misclassi- cations in the dataset’s tagging logic could aect the transferability of our task-specic ndings. 7.3 Construct V alidity W e measure ’Potential Breaking Changes’ based on syntactic-level modications, even though some changes may aect functions with no downstream users. However , in API evolution, any syntactic- level change is considered a breaking change, irrespe ctive of its usage. [ 15 ]. Additionally , our ndings are limited to the Python ecosystem, and statically typed languages need further investiga- tion. 8 Conclusion AI coding agents are increasingly use d in software development but may introduce breaking changes through unintended structural modications. In this study , we conduct a comparative analysis of agent-generated and human-authored Python pull requests and nd that although agents introduce few er breaking changes ov erall, they ar e signicantly more prone to breaking changes during main- tenance tasks, espe cially refactoring and chore-related changes. W e also show that agent condence scores p oorly predict breaking change risk. These ndings highlight the need for task-aware review processes and new benchmarks that explicitly evaluate breaking change risks in AI-generated code. 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